Two years ago in the depths of San Francisco Covid-mania, I wrote up some predictions on what would happen to the city over the medium term. Today I published Revisiting my two-year SF predictions, and by my count, got 7 out of 9 right.

Some of these seem obvious in retrospect, but I wrote them down because they were starkly contrarian compared to claims made by the city’s commentariat. A popular opinion at the time was that tech needed San Francisco, so the longest and hardest lockdown in the nation would be perfectly okay as a closed downtown would spring right back to life on a word from London Breed, like a dog waking on command. Policy apologists guffawed with dramatic bemusement at the very idea that any of these departures could be permanent. Today, we see that almost every one of them was.

Network effects in cities are powerful, and that indeed has been the story of SF and the Bay Area writ large over the decade as companies swooped in soak up innovative energy, capital, and talent, which further compounded and cascaded. My prediction today is the city will continue to observe a reverse network effect as more companies give up expensive leases which have continually lessening ROI.